Over the past month, I’ve been on a series of business trips—part of my ongoing effort to uncover new opportunities in a market where every company is watching its spending closely. During these travels, I’ve had countless conversations with Uber drivers. And those conversations, combined with Uber’s latest earnings report and some compelling technical signals, led me to double my investment in Uber Technologies—from $250,000 to $500,000.
Let me explain why.
Every time I hop into an Uber, I ask the driver how business is going. Most say it’s steady—but there’s a recurring concern: Uber’s commission. In many cities, it has reportedly increased from 25% to 50%. That’s a significant jump, and understandably, it’s causing frustration among drivers.
On a recent trip, I paid $60 for a ride. The driver told me he received only $30. That’s a stark margin—and a clear signal that Uber is capturing more value per transaction.
So I asked the obvious question: “Why not stop driving for Uber?” The answer was consistent—there aren’t many viable alternatives. Traditional taxi services require hefty upfront investments, and other platforms don’t offer the same volume of rides. In short, Uber remains the dominant player. They are trying alternates like buying a lower cost car to save on their monthly installments. The recent driver who drove $40,000 worth Toyota Corolla Hybrid said he will switch to a $20,000 car as there’s no incentive (of course apart from his safety which gets ignored) to drive an expensive car for Uber.
The Investment Thesis
I’ve been bullish on Uber for a while, and had already accumulated $250,000 worth of stock. But after hearing firsthand how Uber is increasing its take rate—and seeing that drivers are still sticking with the platform—I saw a clear path to margin expansion.
Then came the Q1 2025 earnings report and the recent breakout in stocks, which helped to firm up my decision.
Q1 2025 Earnings Highlights
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.9 billion, up 35% YoY
- Free Cash Flow: $2.3 billion
- Monthly Active Consumers: 170 million, up 14%
- Total Trips: Up 18% YoY
- Delivery Margins: 3.7% of Gross Bookings, driven by advertising and scale
- Insurance Costs: Easing, with favorable policy reforms underway
- AV Expansion: Waymo partnership in Austin showing high utilization
- Stock Valuation: Trading at a P/E ratio of 15
And most importantly: Uber just broke out above $90 with strong volume, a technical signal I discussed in a previous blog post. The chart shows a high-probability continuation pattern, suggesting more upside ahead.
The Risk Factor
Of course, there are risks. Driver dissatisfaction could eventually lead to supply constraints or regulatory scrutiny. But for now, the lack of alternatives and Uber’s dominant market position give it pricing power—and that’s translating into stronger margins and profits.
My Strategy Going Forward
I’ve doubled my position and plan to hold until one of two things happens:
- Uber reaches a P/E ratio of 25, or
- The stock shows a significant reversal, at which point I’ll use a 10% trailing stop-loss from its recent highs.
Final Thoughts
Uber is no longer just a ride-hailing company. It’s a global logistics and mobility platform with growing profitability, strong user engagement, and a clear roadmap for future growth. The fundamentals are solid, the technical are bullish, and the real-world feedback from drivers confirms the company’s pricing power.
